The determinants of capital intensity in Japan and the US

We estimate the determinants of capital intensity in Japan and the US, characterized by striking different paths. We augment an otherwise standard Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) model with demand-side considerations, which we find especially relevant in the US. In this augmented setting, the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is placed between 0.74 and 0.90 in Japan, and around 0.30 in the US. We also find evidence of biased technical change, which is capital-saving in Japan but labor-saving in the US. These differences help us explain the diverse experience in the capital deepening process of these economies, and lead us to conclude that demand-side drivers, quite relevant in the US, may also be relevant to account for different growth experiences. A close look at the nature of technological change is also needed before designing one-size-fits-all industrial, economic growth, and/or labor market policies.     

长江经济带能源基础设施建设对区域经济增长的影响分析

基于修正的柯布道格拉斯生产函数，利用2001—2018年长江经济带的面板数据探究能源基础设施与区域经济增长的内在关系，并使用随机前沿分析（SFA）评估长江经济带11个省市的电力消费效率。结果表明，能源基础设施的改善对长江经济带的经济增长产生了积极的促进作用，且存在显著的滞后效应。此外，各省市的能源消费效率介于0.61～0.98，区域间差异不断缩小，长江经济带各省市的能源利用效率得到了显著改善，促进了社会经济涌流。     

高房价是否导致了区域高技能人力资本流出?

我国正处于由人口大国向人力资本强国转型的关键阶段,高技能人才资源已成为当今区域经济社会发展的第一资源;与此同时,我国已经历了一段房价全面上涨的时期,由房价高速上涨所导致的人才流出问题引起政府与公众的广泛关注。在此背景下,本文通过对大学生就业地选择的关注,考察了高房价对地区高技能人力资本流出的影响。本文的结果稳健地表明,高房价显著地提高了大学毕业生离开本地就业的概率;根据本文的估计,在2010年至2015年期间,房价的上升至少增加了区域高技能人才流出21.5%;特别地,房价的挤出作用对于较弱家庭背景的学生以及非一线城市更为严重,此外,高房价也影响了大学毕业生的职业选择。本文的研究结果指出了中国高房价可能影响长期经济社会发展的一个新的重要渠道;同时,通过对房价的关注,为地区与国家减少高技能人才流出,实现经济发展由要素驱动向创新驱动转变提供了新的启示。     

The pressure of economic growth and the issuance of Urban Investment Bonds: Based on panel data from 2005 to 2011 in China

This paper explores the motivations behind the issuance of Urban Investment Bonds (UIBs) to stimulate local economies in China after the 2008 global financial crisis. Based on panel data from 2005 to 2011, we find that pressure to achieve economic growth has a positive effect on the issuance of UIBs, while fiscal pressure has the opposite effect on UIB issuance. We also find that the tenure of municipal party secretary, the revenue of land-use right transfer and fiscal pressure will change the impact of economic growth pressure on UIB issuance. These results are consistent with a pattern in which China's local government officials are influenced by the central government's assessment of local economic growth performance and have promotion-related incentives to maintain and develop the local economy.     

Economic policy uncertainty and analysts’ forecast characteristics

We examine the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the characteristics of analysts’ earnings forecasts over a thirty-year period, spanning a wide variety of political and economic conditions. Motivated by both theory and empirical evidence that suggest a decline in the quality of the information environment for firms as EPU increases, we establish that analysts’ forecast errors increase with EPU, as does the degree of forecast dispersion. Increased error and dispersion persist after controlling for several competing sources of economy-wide uncertainty. Cross sectional analysis exploring heterogeneity in forecast quality across both analyst and firm characteristics establishes that forecast error and dispersion increase with EPU across a broad spectrum of firms and levels of analyst expertise. We control for analysts’ experience overall and the years spent covering a particular industry and firm. Five alternative methods for classifying firms as policy sensitive versus policy neutral provide consistent evidence that analyst forecast errors and dispersion increase with EPU, even for firms not deemed to be particularly sensitive to policy.     

长江经济带生态保护效率与科技服务业发展效率时空关联分析

建立超效率DEA模型并运用视窗分析测算2010-2017年长江经济带11个省市生态保护效率与科技服务业发展效率，通过空间计量模型分析后者对前者的影响。结果表明：科研技术服务业效率对当地及周边地区的生态保护效率具有正向影响；科技资本服务业效率对当地生态保护效率具有正向影响，但对其周边地区有抑制效应；科技宣传服务业未对生态保护效率产生显著影响。据此，提出长江经济带通过提高科技服务业效率改进生态保护效率的对策。     

长江经济带土地出让与城镇化质量耦合协调研究

土地出让与城镇化质量作为城镇化的主要依托和核心追求,二者的关系影响到城市的可持续发展。以长江经济带为例,构建土地出让与城镇化质量综合评价指标体系,利用熵值法和耦合协调模型对二者耦合协调的时空差异做出实证研究,并利用ArcGIS将其空间显化。结果表明：研究期内长江经济带土地出让与城镇化质量的协调度呈现先增后减再增趋势；二者的协调度自西向东逐步增加,耦合度无明显分布规律,总体呈高水平耦合状态；土地出让与城镇化质量的协调度在城市群间的差异显著,但城市群内部的差异逐步减小。从土地出让与城镇化质量的耦合协调发展的视角,为实现城市健康可持续的发展提出政策建议。     

长江经济带农业绿色生产效率及其时空分异特征研究

［目的］从静态分析和动态分析两个方面，阐释长江经济带农业绿色生产效率和农业绿色全要素生产率的时空分异特征以及生产率增长来源，以期为提高长江经济带农业绿色发展质量提供科学决策依据。［方法］文章基于资源环境约束的角度，利用MinDS模型和Global Malmquist Luenberger指数相结合的方法，测算长江经济带农业绿色生产效率和农业绿色全要素生产率，并将农业全要素生产率变化分解为纯技术效率变化（PEC）、纯技术变化（PTC）、规模效率变化（SEEC）和规模技术变化（SETC）4个部分。［结果］（1）长江经济带农业绿色生产效率水平较高，且呈不断增长趋势，下游地区的农业绿色生产效率高于中、上游，且中、上游与下游地区的差距不断拉大； （2）长江经济带农业绿色全要素生产率增长较快，以3年为1个周期，呈现波动式上升趋势，其增长主要源于纯技术进步和规模技术提高； （3）长江经济带下游农业绿色全要素生产率增长率最高，上游次之，中游最低，其中，下游农业绿色全要素生产率增长主要源于纯技术进步，中游是纯技术效率改进、纯技术进步和规模技术提高共同作用的结果，上游则源于纯技术效率改进、纯技术进步和规模效率提高。［结论］长江经济带上、中、下游三大区域的农业绿色发展水平和发展能力存在较大差异，需制定差异化政策，以调整农业增长模式，促进农业转型升级，实现高质量发展。     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.     

Incorporating active adjustment into a financing based model of capital structure

The conventional partial adjustment model, which focuses on leverage evolution, has difficulty identifying deliberate capital structure adjustments as it confounds financing decisions with the mechanical autocorrelation of leverage. We propose and estimate a financing-based partial adjustment model that separates the effects of financing decisions on leverage evolution from mechanical evolution. The speed of adjustment (SOA) is firm-specific and stochastic, and active targeting of capital structure has a multiplier effect that depends on the size of financial deficit. Overall, we find expected SOA from active rebalancing (30%) more than doubles what is expected from mechanical mean reversion alone (13%).